What To Expect Post-US Non-Farm Payroll$

Aftermath of NFP Release: What’s Next for the Markets?

Last week Friday, aka the first Friday after month-end, April 4, 2025, dropped one of the most anticipated economic reports on Wall Street — the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

If you trade forex, stocks, or even just casually stalk financial headlines, you know that NFP days can be pure chaos energy. So now that the dust has settled, let’s unpack what happened and what could be next.

The NFP Recap: Fire or Flop?

Friday’s NFP data came in like a mic drop from the Fed’s favorite economic DJ. Whether it surprised or disappointed depends on your perspective and market positioning. But here’s what mattered:

Jobs added: The headline number was 228,000 jobs in March, beating expectations of 140,000 jobs.

Unemployment rate: Shifted to 4.2%, which is a subtle (or major) signal of labor market health.

Wage growth: This one’s a biggie — it reflects inflationary pressure and helps shape Fed expectations.

The market's reaction? Classic post-NFP whiplash. Dollar volatility spiked. Yields danced. Gold either chilled or panicked. Equities tried to figure out if bad news is still good news, or if we’re back to good news being just… good?

So, What’s Next?

Here’s what traders and investors need to watch now that NFP is in the rearview:

1. Fed Rate Path — Still in Focus

The Fed is laser-focused on inflation and employment. If NFP came in strong, rate cut hopes might get kicked down the road. If it was weak? Markets will lean into the “dovish Fed” narrative. Keep your eyes peeled for Fed speakers this week — their tone will be everything.

2. CPI Incoming

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lurking just around the corner. That’s the next big inflation checkpoint. If CPI comes in hot, it could reinforce a higher-for-longer Fed. If it cools? Buckle up for a potential rally in risk assets.

USDJPY H4 Chart

3. Dollar Direction

The greenback lives and breathes NFP. A bullish print gives the USD wings; a bearish one makes it stumble. Watch key pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD — they’re all mood ring charts for dollar sentiment.

4. Risk Appetite Across Assets

Equities, crypto, gold — all of them are adjusting to the NFP vibes. Are investors feeling risk-on or risk-off? NFP gives a short-term pulse, but the next few sessions will show if the mood sticks.

Final Thoughts: Trade the Reaction, Not the Hype

Post-NFP moves can be deceptive. The real play? Let the initial volatility pass, then trade the second reaction — the one after the market has digested all the headlines, speeches, and spicy Twitter takes.

Whether you’re scalping, swing trading, or just spectating from the sidelines, the post-NFP landscape is full of opportunity. Just remember: stay nimble, stay informed, and don’t marry your bias — the market sure won’t.

Catch you on the next data drop!

Comments

Is It Crypto Crash or Crypto Boom O’Clock?

Time To Buy, Hold Or Sell BTC? The crypto market is like a roller coaster—one minute, you’re riding high on all-time highs, and the next, you’re free-falling into the abyss. So, the question on everyone’s mind: Are we in for a crypto crash, or is it time for another bull run? Let’s break it down. Signs of a Crypto Crash If the market is flashing red, here’s why it might be happening: Regulatory Crackdowns – Governments tightening the leash on crypto? That’s a recipe for panic selling. Overhyped Bull Runs – If prices skyrocketed too fast, corrections are inevitable. (Remember 2021’s Bitcoin drop?) Macroeconomic Conditions – High inflation, Fed rate hikes, or economic downturns? These spook investors. Whale Manipulation – A few big players dumping assets can trigger a cascade of sell-offs. Signs of a Crypto Boom On the flip side, some signs scream "Bull Run Incoming!" Bitcoin Halving Cycles – Historically, BTC halvings have kicked off massive rallies. Is history about to repea...

Retail Trading Vs. Institutional Trading

Chart Of Euro Vs. Canadian Dollar R etail foreign exchange trading is a small segment of the larger foreign exchange market where individuals speculate on the exchange rate between different currencies. This segment has developed with the advent of dedicated electronic trading platforms and the internet, which allows individuals to access the global currency markets. In 2016, it was reported that retail foreign exchange trading represented 5.5% of the whole foreign exchange market ($282 billion in daily trading turnover). Prior to the development of forex trading platforms in the late 90s, forex trading was restricted to large financial institutions. It was the development of the internet, trading software, and forex brokers allowing trading on margins, that started the growth of retail trading. Today, traders are able to trade spot currencies with market makers on margin. This means they need to put down only a small percen...

The Forex Market Today – What’s Moving the Markets?

The Forex Market Today: March 26, 2025 – What’s Moving the Markets? The forex market is always in motion, and today, March 26, is no exception. A mix of global economic data, geopolitical tensions, and central bank signals are shaping currency movements. Let's dive into what’s happening today and how traders might be reacting. 1. The Dollar’s Dominance The US Dollar (USD) has been holding strong this week, and it’s not a surprise. With the Federal Reserve continuing its hawkish stance on interest rates, the greenback remains in favor for those seeking safety and yield. Despite a slightly lower-than-expected GDP growth in the US, inflation remains persistent, which keeps expectations for further rate hikes on the table. The result? The USD continues to enjoy strong demand, particularly against riskier currencies. 2. Euro Under Pressure The Euro (EUR) has been facing some headwinds lately. Despite the European Central Bank’s ongoing commitment to tight monetary policy, economic growt...

ForeX Box

Search This Blog